Historical Context & Head‑to‑Head
-
In 30 matches between the two clubs, Alavés had won 10, Valencia 13, and 7 draws. FC Tables+1
-
In many recent matches, the total goals have been low. For example, some previews suggest “under 2.5 goals” is a common outcome. Football Whispers+1
-
Valencia have struggled on the road in this fixture: one source notes they haven’t won at Mendizorroza since October 2017. Sports Mole
Thus, while Valencia have the “historical overall superiority”, Alavés hold some psychological edges at home and recent form in this rivalry.
Current Form & Situation
Alavés
Alavés come into the match with some decent credentials, especially at home. Some key points:
-
At Mendizorroza, they’ve been difficult to beat: one preview states they were undefeated in seven of their last eight home matches across competitions (88% undefeated). Forebet
-
Their recent home matches: in their last few games they have recorded wins and draws, with a balanced record of wins–draws–losses of 2–2–2 in six matches. Forebet Predictions
-
Offensively and defensively: one analysis gives them ~1.17 goals scored per game and ~1 goal conceded per game over their recent six matches. Forebet Predictions
-
They have a squad that appears fairly fit and they can leverage home advantage, with the support of their fans.
 |
| Team Alavés |
Valencia
Valencia’s season has had its share of problems, particularly on the road:
-
Away from home, Valencia have struggled: one preview indicates they were winless in 12 of their last 15 away matches across competitions. Forebet Predictions
-
Their recent form: they’ve picked up just two wins in eight La Liga matches according to one summary (2 W, 2 D, 4 L). Forebet+1
-
Goals scored vs. goals conceded: despite scoring around 1.5 goals per game in one sample, they’ve conceded about 1.75 or more per game, highlighting defensive issues. Forebet Predictions
-
Their morale and away form look fragile; this could play into Alavés’ hands.
 |
| Team Valencia |
Tactical & Team Notes
Alavés
Under the direction of their coach (Eduardo Coudet), Alavés appear to prioritise a blend of defensive solidity and measured attacking ambition, especially at home. Key tactical points:
-
They are solid at home and are able to keep the game tight. Forebet
-
They may adopt a cautious approach early, controlling the game rather than overwhelming.
-
Key players to watch for: contributions from experienced players who can deliver in big matches.
-
Home crowd and familiarity of Mendizorroza give them an edge.
Valencia
For Valencia (with coach Carlos Corberán at the helm), there are several tactical challenges they must overcome:
-
Improving away form: Valencia are going into this match needing to break a negative trend.
-
Defensive fragility: their numbers show they have leaked goals away from home. Tackling this will be vital.
-
Transition and counter‑attack may be key: given Alavés’ home strength, Valencia may need to exploit spaces and hit quickly.
-
Squad rotation/injuries: While not all details are fully available, managing fitness and selection will be important.
Key Players & Match‑ups
-
Alavés: Propositionally, players like their midfield engine and defenders who are firm at home will be significant. The home team need players who can step up and make a difference in tight encounters.
-
Valencia: They have to rely on players with experience in away matches and who can handle pressure. For example, their forwards and wide players who can create chances may be crucial given their recent defensive issues.
Match‑up to watch: Alavés’ home defence vs. Valencia’s attack. If Valencia fail to break down Alavés early, the home team may dictate the pace, forcing Valencia into errors or fatigue.
 |
| Mendizorroza |
Prediction & What to Expect
Given the combination of form, history and tactical context, certain scenarios look likely:
-
Tight contest: Multiple analysts suggest under 2.5 goals is a probable outcome for this fixture. Football Whispers
-
Home edge: Alavés are likely to have the upper hand given their strong home record and Valencia’s away struggles. Many previews favour Alavés. Sportskeeda+1
-
Possibility of a draw: While Alavés might be slightly favourites, Valencia have quality and could snatch something if they get the momentum.
-
Score‑line: Some predictions suggest a 1‑0 or 2‑1 home win. LaLiga Expert+1
My verdict: I lean towards a home win for Alavés, possibly by a narrow margin (e.g., 1‑0 or 2‑1). However, if Valencia manage to score first or impose their game, the match could open up.
Implications for Each Club
For Alavés
-
A victory would strengthen their position in the mid‑table, boost morale, and reinforce their home reputation.
-
It would also psychologically dent Valencia’s confidence and potentially shift the head‑to‑head momentum further in Alavés’ favour.
-
From a wider perspective, performing well at home against a historically stronger club helps solidify the team’s identity and support among fans.
For Valencia
-
This is an opportunity to arrest a troubling away form and shift the season’s narrative.
-
A poor result would deepen concerns about their defence, mentality on the road, and ability to challenge higher up the table.
-
They need to view this as a pivotal match — winning away at a tough venue could act as a springboard.
Final Thoughts
The match between Alavés and Valencia is one of those fixtures where history, momentum, home advantage, and psychological edges all interlock. While Valencia may have the pedigree and squad resources, the combination of Alavés’ home strength and Valencia’s away difficulties suggests that the host side may emerge with the upper hand.
As a viewer or supporter, expect a competitive game, potentially tight, with room for a single moment to decide the outcome. The first goal will be vital. If Alavés can strike first, they’re well‑placed to lock things down. If Valencia get ahead, they might force the game open and take control.
0 Comments